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2012 Emmy Predictions: Drama & Mini-Series/TV Movie

September 19, 2012

It’s been a long time since I posted anything, but now that we are nearing the fall television season, I figured it was time to get back to posting on a semi-regular basis.  What better way to do that than discuss the upcoming Emmys?
Now, as some of you may remember, once the Emmy nominations were released, I posted about what I thought the Emmy voters got right and what they got wrong.  Now that we are closer, I’m going to offer my opinions about what I think will happen Sunday based on the nominees.  I will predict the acting, directing, writing and series nominations for both drama & comedy in addition to who I think should win in those categories.  Some of the “Will Win” picks will have multiple answers because I could see various scenarios playing out.  In those cases, I will select which I think is most likely. Also, I have decided to include my predictions for Best Mini-Series or TV Movie & Best Variety show; Mini-Series is included in this post and Variety will be included with my Comedy predicitions.  So, let’s get to the predictions.  Also, take this as a spoiler warning, since I will be discussing things that happened in these shows, so be warned.

Best Mini-Series or TV Movie Nominees

  • American Horror Story
  • Game Change
  • Hatfields & McCoys
  • Hemingway & Gellhorn
  • Luther
  • Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia

Should Win: Hatfields & McCoys

Being totally honest, this is the only one of the nominees that I’ve seen at this point.  I have heard good things about all of these, and I’m planning to watch Sherlock very soon, but given the fact that I’ve only seen Hatfields & McCoys means that I’m going to pick it.  Aside from the fact I’ve only seen that one, I thought that it was really well done.  Kevin Costner and Bill Paxton were very good as the titular patriarchs in this classic American rivalry.  I’m a big American history guy, so many of my favorite mini-series such as Band of Brothers & Lonesome Dove are based in some of my favorite time periods.  If you haven’t caught this mini-series yet, I highly recommend it.

Will Win: Sherlock

From what I’ve heard, this is an awesome mini-series.  I really think it has a great shot to win.  I could also see the voters going for the political Game Change since this is an election year or for American Horror Story (which is, in my opinion, not really a mini-series), but I really think that it will go to Sherlock.

Best Writing Nominees

  • Semi Chellas & Matthew Weiner (Mad Men-“Far Away Places”)
  • Semi Chellas & Matthew Weiner (Mad Men-“The Other Woman”)
  • Julian Fellows (Downton Abbey-“Episode Seven”)
  • Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon & Gideon Raff (Homeland-“Pilot”)
  • Andre Jacquemetton & Maria Jacquemetton (Mad Men-“Commissions & Fees”)

Should Win: Semi Chellas & Matthew Weiner (“Far Away Places”)

In my opinion, of the three nominated Mad Men episodes, this one was the most creative and took the most risks when it comes to story-telling, which is why I believe it should win in this category.  It has three non-linear intertwining stories, including one where Roger Sterling has an experience with LSD.  Any time you devote a large portion of an episode to one of your main characters tripping on LSD is generally going to be pretty entertaining, particularly when John Slattery did it so well.

Will Win: Andre Jacquemetton & Maria Jacquemetton (“Commissions & Fees”)

All three of the nominated Mad Men episodes were very well written and had great character moments (“The Other Woman” was a highlight for Christina Hendricks and Elisabeth Moss; I already established my enjoyment of “Far Away Places” due to the risks taken), but I think this one is going to take the prize.  This was the most heart-breaking episode of the season and it was something that few saw coming going into the season.  While I think the voters would be right rewarding any of the three episodes, I think this one has the best chance to take home the Emmy.

Best Directing Nominees

  • Phil Abraham (Mad Men-“The Other Woman”)
  • Michael Cuesta (Homeland-“Pilot”)
  • Vince Gilligan (Breaking Bad-“Face Off”)
  • Brian Percival (Downton Abbey-“Episode Seven”)
  • Tim Van Patten (Boardwalk Empire-“To the Lost”)

Should Win & Will Win: Vince Gilligan

Nothing against the other episodes nominated, but I would be shocked if Gilligan doesn’t take home the award in this category.  This episode was a highlight in a season full of highlights.  Gilligan knows how to end a season with a bang, and he does so again in this episode.  Just a masterful episode.  Not much more I can say about it without giving too much away, or limiting what I can say for some other categories.

Best Supporting Actress Nominees

  • Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
  • Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey)
  • Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad)
  • Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
  • Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife)
  • Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Should Win & Will Win: Christina Hendricks

Now, to be up front, I’ve only seen two of the four shows that are nominated in this category (Mad Men & Breaking Bad).  Between the two nominated actresses that I’ve watched, Hendricks had the superior season.  Her character enjoyed a meatier role during season 5 and she became a partner at Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce after she sold her soul for the good of the company.  The reason I have selected her as both answers is due in part to the fact she had a better season than Anna Gunn’s on Breaking Bad and because Maggie Smith won for Downton Abbey last year.  I could be wrong, but I think Hendricks will take the prize since this is her 3rd consecutive nomination with no prior victories.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees

  • Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)
  • Brendan Coyle (Downton Abbey)
  • Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
  • Giancarlo Esposito (Breaking Bad)
  • Jared Harris (Mad Men)
  • Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)

Should Win: Giancarlo Esposito

Season 4 of Breaking Bad was essentially one giant chess match between Walter White and Gustavo Fring.  Esposito played Fring in such a way that was both captivating and bone-chilling all while keeping such a calm demeanor that was often unsettling.  One of the best villains in recent television history, I think he makes an incredibly good case to take home this award.

Will Win (Scenario 1): Giancarlo Esposito or Jared Harris

I could see the voters rewarding either of these gentlemen for the fact they both delivered great performances in what would turn out to be their final seasons on the shows.  You can’t really go wrong with either, and I would enjoy seeing either of them win.

Will Win (Scenario 2): Peter Dinklage

Peter Dinklage delivered an even better performance as Tyrion Lannister in season 2 of Game of Thrones than in season 1, which he won the Emmy for.  Given the fact that Breaking Bad‘s two nominees could split the vote amongst themselves, I could see the Imp sneaking in and defending his crown, much in the same way he defended King’s Landing against Stannis.  Sorry, got a little nerdy there toward the end.

For the record, I think the most likely scenario is Esposito taking home the award, but we will have to wait and see.

Best Actress Nominees

  • Kathy Bates (Harry’s Law)
  • Glenn Close (Damages)
  • Claire Danes (Homeland)
  • Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)
  • Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
  • Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)

Should Win & Will Win: Elisabeth Moss

The ladies of Mad Men had a great year and Moss should be rewarded for her part of that.  Her character has come a long way from the mild-mannered secretary in season 1 and has now become a major player in the advertising world.  I think her toughest competition will come from Claire Danes, but I think that she has played this character for long enough that she will get her due this year.

Best Actor Nominees

  • Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey)
  • Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire)
  • Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
  • Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
  • Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
  • Damian Lewis (Homeland)

Should Win & Will Win (Scenario 1): Bryan Cranston

Season 4 of Breaking Bad was Bryan Cranston’s best work to date as Walter White.  Considering he won the Emmy in this category for his performance in each of the first three seasons, it’s tough to imagine that he wouldn’t win this year.  Also, if he does win, he will have to say “I Won” at some point during his acceptance speech.  Sorry, Heisenberg, but it has to be done.

Will Win (Scenario 2): Jon Hamm

For this scenario to play out, two things have to happen: the voters have to say “We’ve given Cranston three of these things, let’s give it to someone else,” and also say “Man, we need to give Jon Hamm this thing; he has played one of the best characters of the past 10 years.”  I think they could very well do that for what was a typically great season for the actor & character.

For the record, I think scenario 2 will play out, even though I think Cranston’s season was better than Hamm’s.  Either way, I can’t see a network other than AMC taking home this one.

Best Series Nominees

  • Boardwalk Empire
  • Breaking Bad
  • Downton Abbey
  • Game of Thrones
  • Homeland
  • Mad Men

Should Win & Will Win: Breaking Bad

This season of Breaking Bad was one of the best seasons of television of all time.  That, compiled with the fact that voters may experience some Mad Men fatigue, and I think this one goes to Breaking Bad.  Game of Thrones could sneak in there, but I think it’s just Breaking Bad‘s year in this award.  Really, all of the nominated shows in this category have legitimate shots to win, but I think voters will side with the king on this one.

So, there you have it, my predictions of who will win and who I think should win for the drama categories at the Emmys.  Stay tuned for my comedy predictions, which will come tomorrow.

Hope you liked this post, and I hope you like what else I have to say.


From → Television

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  1. Like It, Love It, Gotta Have It: 2012 Emmy Edition (with other notes) « Do You Like Like Me?

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