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2013 Oscar Predictions: Part II

February 8, 2013

Here are my remaining Oscar predictions (if you missed my other predictions, they can be found here).  To catch you up to speed, this post will include the music categories, animated feature, writing, acting, directing and picture.  Without further ado, here are my predictions for those categories.

Music (Original Score)

  • Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
  • Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
  • Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
  • Lincoln (John Williams)
  • Skyfall (Thomas Newman)

lifeofpi

John Williams has been nominated for a whopping 48 Academy Awards and has won five times, so I feel bad counting him out, but the money seems to be on first-time nominee Mychael Danna.  Williams and Newman will be in contention, but Life of Pi seems to be the frontrunner for this award.

Music (Original Song)

  •  “Before My Time” Chasing Ice (J. Ralph)
  • “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” Ted (Walter Murphy and Seth MacFarlane)
  • “Pi’s Lullaby” Life of Pi (Mychael Danna and Bombay Jayashri)
  • “Skyfall” Skyfall (Adele Atkins and Paul Epworth)
  • “Suddenly” Les Miserables (Claude-Michel Schonberg, Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil)

skyfall_adele

Before I explain my selection, let me talk about the song from Les Miserables.  As a lifelong fan of the musical, I think it’s a shame that they had to write a brand new song for the movie to be included in this category.  While the song is very good, it is not the best song from the film, nor the best representation of the film as a whole.  No one left the theater going “Man, that Suddenly song was the best song in the movie.”  So, despite this being the first time the Broadway mainstay has been depicted in film, songs like “I Dreamed a Dream,” “On My Own,” “One Day More,” and “Bring Him Home” were ineligible for recognition, despite being both fan favorites and some of the most emotionally resonant songs of the film.  With all that said, I am leaning toward Skyfall in this category since it was very well received and was in one of the best Bond films of all time.

Animated Feature

  • Brave (Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman)
  • Frankenweenie (Tim Burton)
  • ParaNorman (Sam Fell and Chris Butler)
  • The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Peter Lord)
  • Wreck-It Ralph (Rich Moore)

brave

Typically I would say whatever Pixar film that is up for this award would be a no-brainer, and move on.  However, Wreck-It Ralph was very well received, and so it could easily take the award as well.  Given that it’s a neck and neck race, I’m still giving the nod to Pixar on principle.  Either one is surely deserving.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

  • Argo (Chris Terrio)
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin)
  • Life of Pi (David McGee)
  • Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
  • Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

Tony Kushner

Given that no one in this category is a previous winner, the prediction here is a little difficult.  I found Silver Linings Playbook and Argo to both be very well written, but I think Lincoln is going to take this award, which is also deserving.  The dialogue was very well done, and considering how much of the movie is Lincoln telling anecdotes, they have to be well written for the movie to be as highly regarded as it was.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

  • Amour (Michael Haneke)
  • Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
  • Flight (John Gatins)
  • Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola)
  • Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

quentin tarantino

This seems to be a two-horse race between Boal and Tarantino.  Both have previously won for screenwriting, with Boal winning for The Hurt Locker and Tarantino winning for Pulp Fiction.  Given that Tarantino won the Golden Globe for screenplay and he’s gone nearly 20 years without an Oscar win, I would put him in the driver’s seat for this award.  Keep an eye out for Wes Anderson to sneak in if Boal and Tarantino should split the vote.

Actress in a Supporting Role

  • Amy Adams (The Master)
  • Sally Field (Lincoln)
  • Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
  • Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
  • Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Anne Hathaway

While Field and Hunt are both Academy Award winners, and Adams and Weaver have been previously nominated, this is almost a no-brainer for Anne Hathaway.  She was generally regarded as the best part of Les Miserables, and she delivers a powerhouse performance.  It would be very surprising if any of the other nominees take this award instead of Hathaway.

Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Alan Arkin (Argo)
  • Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
  • Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
  • Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Tommy Lee Jones Lincoln

This is one of the most interesting categories in the whole show, as every nominee is a previous Oscar winner.  Also, considering Waltz won the Golden Globe and Jones won the SAG Award, that means the voters are somewhat undecided as well.  You can also never count out De Niro, and given the fact that he hasn’t won since Raging Bull, the Academy could reward him for his best performance in years.  I really feel this is a three-man race at this point, with Arkin being just behind those three (while I found Arkin’s performance to be very good, I personally felt Bryan Cranston gave the best supporting performance in Argo.  That could be a Breaking Bad bias, but I truly felt if anyone from Argo deserved recognition, it was Cranston).  I’m giving Jones the  nod, but wouldn’t be surprised at all if Waltz or De Niro won this award.

Actress in a Leading Role

  • Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
  • Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
  • Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

Jennifer Lawrence

This is an interesting category as well, considering that there is a 9 year old nominee and a 83 year old nominee.  However, I think it’s a two-woman race between Lawrence and Chastain.  Either one could take it, and either one would be deserving.  I personally enjoyed Lawrence’s performance just a tad more than Chastain’s, but I would be happy with either one taking the Oscar home.

Actor in a Leading Role

  • Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
  • Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
  • Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
  • Denzel Washington (Flight)

lincoln-daniel-day-lewis

Daniel Day-Lewis has been the favorite for this award essentially since he was cast as Abraham Lincoln, and he delivers an outstanding performance.  I think he will win, but I would like to talk about the other three nominees that I’ve seen, because they deserve descriptions as well.  I felt Washington was good, but just sort of an average performance for him, which is still very good, but I wasn’t blown away as I have been some times with him.  Cooper does a fantastic job, and I feel it’s his best performance to date.  However, Jackman is the real standout of those three, in my opinion.  Truly the best performance I have ever seen from him, and it’s a shame that he’s going against such a powerhouse performance, because he would have a great chance to win in most other years.

Director

  • Amour (Michael Haneke)
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin)
  • Life of Pi (Ang Lee)
  • Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)
  • Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

daniel-day-lewis-steven-spielberg-lincoln-screening-08

I think Ben Affleck is going to win because…….oh, that’s right.  He’s not nominated.  Well, that absurdity aside, I think Spielberg pretty much has this award locked down.  Don’t get me wrong, he totally deserves to win as well.  He is one of the greatest directors of all time, and I feel he doesn’t always get the credit he deserves, but I think given the fact the other four best picture nominated films’ directors are absent all but guarantees another Oscar for Spielberg.  Lee has an outside chance, but I’d be surprised if Spielberg doesn’t take it home.

Picture

  • Amour (Margaret Menegoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka and Michael Katz)
  • Argo (Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney)
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald)
  • Django Unchained (Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone)
  • Les Miserables (Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh)
  • Life of Pi (Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark)
  • Lincoln (Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy)
  • Silver Linings Playbook (Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon)
  • Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison)

argo

The two frontrunners seem to be Lincoln and Argo, and I have a feeling that Argo is going to take it.  While really all the nominated films I’ve seen have been very good and deserving of nominations, I think it’s going to come down between those.  Argo has been the one winning the lead-in awards, such as the Golden Globe and the SAG, so I think it’s going to be the one that goes home with the award. So, those are my predictions for all the awards at the Oscars.  We’ll see how accurate they turn out to be.  Hopefully they’re more accurate than my Emmy predictions, but we’ll see.

Hope you liked this post, and I hope you like what else I have to say.

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