As we are now a week away from the 2013 Emmys, it’s time for my Should Win/Will Win predictions. While I won’t cover all categories, we will have predictions for writing, directing, acting and program for comedy and drama categories. So sit back, and enjoy the predictions which could very well be 100% wrong.
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
- Jack Burditt & Robert Carlock (30 Rock-“Hogcock!”)
- Tina Fey & Tracey Wigfeld (30 Rock-“Last Lunch”)
- David Crane & Jeffrey Klarik (Episodes-“Episode 209”)
- Pamela Adlon & Louis C.K. (Louie-“Daddy’s Girlfriend Part 1”)
- Greg Daniels (The Office-“Finale”)
Should Win/Will Win: Tina Fey & Tracey Wigfeld
I had a very tough time selecting a should win for this category because both 30 Rock episodes, along with the choices from Louie and The Office were great episodes. 30 Rock and The Office had near perfect finales for both shows, but given the Emmys’ love for 30 Rock, I think it will take home the award. If I had to choose one of the two to win, I have to go with the one Tina Fey wrote. You couldn’t go wrong with any of the four, though.
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
- George Mastras (Breaking Bad-“Dead Freight”)
- Thomas Schnauz (Breaking Bad-“Say My Name”)
- Julian Fellowes (Downton Abbey-“Episode Four”)
- David Benioff & D.B. Weiss (Game of Thrones-“Rains of Castamere”)
- Henry Bromell (Homeland-“Q&A”)
Should Win: David Benioff & D.B Weiss
This was an incredibly tough call. Two great episodes of one of the top 5 shows of all time vs. probably the single most devastating episode of any show in recent memory. As someone who read the books first, I was highly anticipating this episode of Game of Thrones, and it did not disappoint in the slightest.
Will Win: Henry Bromell
Homeland won last year in this category against some stiff competition. Many people feel that season two wasn’t as strong (and you wouldn’t be totally off base) but I have a feeling that this episode could win in a split vote situation.
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
- Beth McCarthy-Miller (30 Rock-“Hogcock!/Last Lunch”)
- Paris Barclay (Glee-“Diva”)
- Lena Dunham (Girls-“On All Fours”)
- Louis C.K. (Louie-“New Year’s Eve”)
- Gail Mancuso (Modern Family-“Arrested”)
Should Win: Beth McCarthy-Miller
As touched on already, the finale of 30 Rock was an outstanding hour of television. Given that new episodes are now gone from our lives, I feel that we need to honor it for the brilliant show that it was. Louie was also very good, but I didn’t think that episode fully captured the season as well as this 30 Rock episode did.
Will Win: Gail Mancuso
Modern Family has dominated at the Emmys the past few years. I imagine that it will continue this year as well. While I could see 30 Rock winning of course, or Lena Dunham, until proven otherwise, I’m betting on Modern Family since it tends to win.
Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series
- Tim van Patten (Boardwalk Empire-“Margate Sands”)
- Michelle MacLaren (Breaking Bad-“Gliding Over All”)
- Jeremy Webb (Downton Abbey-“Episode Four”)
- Lesli Linka Glatter (Homeland-“Q&A”)
- David Fincher (House of Cards-“Chapter 1”)
Should Win: Michelle MacLaren
This episode had everything you could want in a Breaking Bad episode: classic Walt and Jesse, a masterful meth-cooking montage (seriously, the “Crystal Blue Persuasion” montage is probably the best one they’ve ever done), and an insane cliff-hanger. The direction had a ton to do with that.
Will Win: David Fincher
House of Cards was one of the new hits of the year and is expected to take home several awards. While the competition is stiff, I think this will be the frontrunner and the show could enjoy the success that Homeland did last year.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
- Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)
- Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
- Anna Chlumsky (Veep)
- Jane Krakowski (30 Rock)
- Jane Lynch (Glee)
- Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
- Merritt Wever (Nurse Jackie)
Should Win: Jane Krakowski
In her final chance to win, it would be nice to see Krakowski win an Emmy for a very funny character that she has portrayed for seven seasons. While there is some tough competition, since everyone else should be in contention next year, I hope Krakowski wins this year.
Will Win: Julie Bowen
Again, until proven otherwise, I’m betting on Modern Family. While Sofia Vergara may finally win, I’m gonna go with the two-time winner. Jane Lynch may also have a chance considering she had won previously, but I would have Bowen as 1a and Vergara as 1b.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
- Morena Baccarin (Homeland)
- Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
- Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones)
- Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad)
- Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
- Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Should Win/Will Win: Maggie Smith
Clarke, Gunn & Hendricks all had great seasons on their respective shows, but Maggie Smith has to be the odds on favorite to win this award. As I believe any Downton fan would attest, she is consistently the best part of the show and she is the best chance that the show has to win an award.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
- Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
- Adam Driver (Girls)
- Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
- Bill Hader (Saturday Night Live)
- Tony Hale (Veep)
- Ed O’Neill (Modern Family)
Should Win: Nick Offerman…….ok fine, Bill Hader
I would love to see one of the best SNL cast members in recent memory be recognized for his contributions to one of the biggest television institutions of all time. While I expect Modern Family to win it, I would absolutely love Hader to win here.
Will Win: Ty Burrell
Ty Burrell is my favorite part of Modern Family, and given that the one adult male that didn’t get nominated this year is the two time winner, Burrell has to be the favorite given he has won once already. If Burrell doesn’t take it, my guess is Ed O’Neill, but I’d be particularly surprised if someone from Modern Family didn’t win this award.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
- Jonathan Banks (Breaking Bad)
- Bobby Cannavale (Boardwalk Empire)
- Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)
- Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
- Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
- Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
Should Win/Will Win: Jonathan Banks
Honestly, under the Should Win part I could pick any of the nominees and some that didn’t even get nominations. I honestly can see any of the nominees winning, but I’m going to guess Jonathan Banks this year. Paul and Dinklage are both previous winners, so you can’t count them out, and Patinkin is obviously great as well, which is why this one is so difficult to predict. I just have a feeling deep down that Banks is the guy here.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
- Laura Dern (Enlightened)
- Lena Dunham (Girls)
- Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
- Tina Fey (30 Rock)
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
- Amy Poehler (Parks & Recreation)
Should Win: Amy Poehler
While Fey and Louis-Dreyfus could also lay claim to the “should win” I’m going to say Amy for two reasons. First, Parks & Rec is the best comedy on tv right now and is criminally underrepresented at the Emmys. Secondly, Poehler is the glue that holds the show together. As such, she deserves the recognition that she has yet to receive by winning.
Will Win: Tina Fey
I feel this award has to be Fey’s to lose. As the last hurrah for 30 Rock, it would make sense for Fey to win another award for her portrayal of Liz Lemon. Lena Dunham could upset Fey, given the critical acclaim for Girls, but I don’t see it as the most likely scenario. It’s a tough category, but I expect Fey to go home with yet another Emmy.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
- Connie Britton (Nashville)
- Claire Danes (Homeland)
- Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)
- Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel)
- Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)
- Kerry Washington (Scandal)
- Robin Wright (House of Cards)
Should Win/Will Win: Claire Danes
Most of these women deserve to win. Robin Wright made an outstanding impression on House of Cards, while Elisabeth Moss and Michelle Dockery continued their great work on their respective shows. However, when in doubt, keep with the defending champ. Danes had some great moments during this season of Homeland, so I think she will be the favorite to win again this year.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
- Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
- Jason Bateman (Arrested Development)
- Louis C.K. (Louie)
- Don Cheadle (House of Lies)
- Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
- Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
Should Win: Jason Bateman
I will always support Arrested Development when it comes to this sort of stuff. As much as I love Louis C.K. and Alec Baldwin, I will choose Jason Bateman because fate smiled upon humanity and gave us another season of one of the best shows ever. It’s the right thing to do.
Will Win: Alec Baldwin
For similar reasons as Tina Fey, Alec Baldwin should be the favorite to win since it’s his last chance. Jim Parsons has won several, and Louis C.K. is extremely deserving, but Baldwin makes the most sense from a prediction standpoint. He also makes sense because he was constantly outstanding as Jack Donaghy.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey)
- Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
- Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)
- Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
- Damian Lewis (Homeland)
- Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
Should Win/Will Win: Kevin Spacey
This category is absolutely loaded. Bryan Cranston is a 3-time winner as one of the best characters of all time. Damian Lewis is the defending champ. Jon Hamm deserves one for his continued excellence as Don Draper. However, Kevin Spacey was just fantastic on House of Cards. His asides were pitch perfect, and his character was one cold as ice D.C. bastard. It would be pretty surprising if he didn’t win, but if he doesn’t, I hope it goes to Hamm just so he can get over that hump.
Outstanding Comedy Series
- 30 Rock
- The Big Bang Theory
- Modern Family
Should Win: 30 Rock
Louie is quite the deserving candidate, and of course, Arrested Development and Parks & Recreation didn’t get nominations despite being extremely deserving (it also would have been nice for The Office to get a nomination just since it was its last season). As I’ve mentioned multiple times, this is 30 Rock’s last go round, so I’m hoping that it takes the award one last time.
Will Win: Modern Family
As mentioned many times, the Emmys are Modern Family’s to lose. This may be the year that it does finally lose, but I’m still calling it here. If it does lose, I do think 30 Rock will take it, but again, I think it will be Modern Family until proven otherwise.
Outstanding Drama Series
- Breaking Bad
- Downton Abbey
- Game of Thrones
- House of Cards
- Mad Men
Should Win/Will Win: House of Cards
I hate to vote against Breaking Bad, but 8 episodes of it compared to 13 for House of Cards & Mad Men makes it tough to give it the nod. Game of Thrones also had a great season, but it will be very difficult to take out House of Cards which should win this award. It had a great debut season and seems to have the critical support to take home the big prize.
So, there you have it, my should win/will win predictions for this year’s Emmys. We’ll see if I’m right next week.
Hope you liked this post and I hope you like what else I have to say.