Far Too Early Predictions: 2014 Emmy Replacements
Following this year’s crazy Emmys, it occurred to me that the comedy categories could look a little different next year, not only due to the loss of 30 Rock, but the hiatus of Louie (unless season 4 happens earlier in the year than the previous seasons, it won’t air in the eligibility window), Bill Hader’s departure from Saturday Night Live, the cancellation of Enlightened and Arrested Development having a movie before season 5 means that they won’t be able to defend their nominations in various categories. That means, assuming this year’s other nominees hold and under the conditions previously stated for losing nominees, there are three spots open for Lead Actor in a Comedy, two spots open for Best Comedy Series and Lead Actress in a Comedy, and one spot open for Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress. With that in mind, here are the people and shows that I think are most likely to earn nominations. The choices will be ranked from least likely to most likely, even though I may feel some are more deserving than higher ranked competition. Also, the number of potential nominees will shift depending on how many available slots there are & how many close contenders there are.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Here’s the thing: this category had seven nominees this year which is a very unusual thing to happen. Theoretically, everyone that was nominated this year and is eligible could earn repeat nominations and that be the end of it. Betty White could possibly return as a nominee for Hot in Cleveland as she was two years ago. If there is a new face in the category, Orange is the New Black has a few contenders, as does Girls. I would love to see Community be represented by either Gillian Jacobs or Alison Brie, Parks & Recreation get a nomination for Rashida Jones or Aubrey Plaza, or in a very outside chance, Kaitlin Olson earn a nod for her work on It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, but as it is, I can’t see this category featuring seven nominees again.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
5: Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
This is my wild card selection for this category since he is on a rookie show. However, if the show develops like I think/hope it can, then Braugher could snag a nomination in this category. He has won two Emmys previously and has seven total nominations but none for comedy. That might change this year.
4: Neil Patrick Harris (How I Met Your Mother)
NPH has 3 Emmys to his name, but no wins in this category despite 4 nominations for his role on How I Met Your Mother. He hasn’t been nominated since 2010, but since this is HIMYM’s final season, he has a good shot at a 5th nomination as Barney Stinson.
3: Nick Offerman (Parks and Recreation)
While Offerman is the one I want to be nominated the most, he has several former nominees to contend with. Since this is the case, in terms of “most likely” I think he falls about here because even though he’s been consistently outstanding as Ron Swanson, he still doesn’t have a nomination to show for it. The Emmys have yet to get this right, but hopefully that ends next year.
2: Max Greenfield (New Girl)
I don’t watch New Girl but have heard some good things. Greenfield earned a nomination last year, but didn’t get one this year. Given the critical acclaim for this show, he could easily return to this category next year.
1: Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
Eric Stonestreet has won twice in this category for his part on Modern Family, but wasn’t nominated this year. Stonestreet won’t be gone from this category for long given that the Modern Family Emmy train doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon. Of all the people not nominated this year, Stonestreet has to be the odds-on favorite to be there next year.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
8: Martha Plimpton (Raising Hope)
I’ve never watched Raising Hope but have heard it’s pretty funny. Plimpton was nominated a few years ago for this show, so she could possibly return although that doesn’t seem very likely.
7: Lea Michele (Glee)
Slightly more likely than Plimpton, Michele earned a nomination a few years ago as well. Her chances are better because she is bound to have an emotional arc this season (as will most of the Glee cast) given the death of cast mate Cory Monteith.
6: Anna Faris (Mom)
5: Sarah Michelle Geller (The Crazy Ones)
I’m going to save space and write about both Faris and Geller together since neither of their shows have debuted yet. I like Geller’s shot better than Faris’ because her show does appear to be better and a show that features Robin Williams will help her chances. Plus, she has television cred for her time as Buffy. I’m not counting Faris out, though, because for reasons I will never understand, Chuck Lorre shows get tons of Emmy noms.
4: Taylor Schilling (Orange Is The New Black)
While Schilling doesn’t play the most compelling character on Orange is the New Black, she is still the centerpiece of the show. Given that I’ve already seen her show, I’m ranking her slightly above those two, but her chances could slide as the eligibility window progresses and her performance falls back further in our minds.
3: Mindy Kaling (The Mindy Project)
I haven’t personally watched The Mindy Project, but I did think Mindy Kaling was funny on The Office and in other things I’ve seen her in. I think she is right on the cusp of a nomination and could certainly make her way in there.
2: Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly)
I used a Bridesmaids gif here for two reasons: I couldn’t find a Mike and Molly one and because Bridesmaids was the reason McCarthy won in this category two years ago. She was absent this year following back to back nominations, but I imagine she will be back next year.
1: Zooey Deschanel (New Girl)
Zooey Deschanel had a nomination last year and many assumed she would get another one this year. This of course wasn’t the case, but as the category opens back up next year, Deschanel should be back with no problem.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
10: Andy Samberg (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
Samberg has won an Emmy and been nominated six times. Of course, all were for Music and Lyrics during his time on SNL. Being the lead character on a network show should help his chances at a nomination for acting, but he has a lot of competition in this category. He could get a lot closer by season’s end, but he has a long way to go.
9: Joel McHale (Community)
Community hasn’t had an acting nomination during its run, but with 3 open nomination slots, this is probably the best shot it’s going to have. Hopefully McHale will have some good material this season so he can get a nomination, but in a crowded field, it’ll be no easy feat.
8: Danny McBride (Eastbound & Down)
Kenny Powers is undeniably one of the funniest characters on television. Danny McBride has yet to be nominated and given that this will be the final season of Eastbound & Down, this will be his last chance. I like his odds a little better than the last two people listed for that reason.
7: Josh Radnor (How I Met Your Mother)
Of course, in the “final season push” category, Radnor has the edge on McBride because HIMYM is the safer show and has a better track record of earning nominations than Eastbound & Down. He will also have the more sentimental edge since he will finally meet the mother. If Ted Mosby ever has a shot, this is it.
6: Jake Johnson (New Girl)
I know many felt he should have earned a nomination this year, but he could have an even better chance next year. Time will well, but Johnson has about as good a shot as any to get a nomination in this category.
5: Ricky Gervais (Derek)
Ricky Gervais has had great success at the Emmys, earning nominations in various categories for both versions of The Office and winning in this category for Extras. Netflix earned nominations in multiple acting categories this year. Given the combination of the two, Gervais could easily return to this category.
4: Adam Scott (Parks & Recreation)
Adam Scott has been very consistently good on Parks and Recreation. He has a great shot next year given the multiple openings in the category, but also due to the fact he is great on there. Parks has a good shot at multiple nominations next year, with Scott being one of the frontrunners to join the nomination group.
3: Johnny Galecki (The Big Bang Theory)
Galecki was nominated two years ago and his costar Jim Parsons has won 3 of these awards. I don’t understand the love of this show, but it gets viewers and it wins this category. I imagine they will be more than happy to include another cast member in this category.
2: Robin Williams (The Crazy Ones)
Sure, this show hasn’t aired yet. But are you going to tell me that Robin Williams, winner of 6 Golden Globes, 2 Emmys and 1 Oscar isn’t one of the favorites to get a nomination upon his return to television? Come on.
1: Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men)
Jon Cryer earned 7 consecutive nominations for his character on Two and a Half Men (only once for Lead Actor) and has won twice. He wasn’t nominated this year, but of all the non-nominees, he has to be the most likely to be back.
Outstanding Comedy Series
15: Family Guy
Sure it’s not as good as it used to be, but it was nominated in this category previously. Considering it’s the only animated show that regularly submits for Outstanding Comedy Series instead of in the animated categories I included it here as the longest long shot. (Due to Emmy rules, you can’t submit for both. Since Bob’s Burgers, Archer & South Park submit under animated, I haven’t included them here although they would be very deserving in this category)
14: Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Being a new show could hurt this show’s chances early on for the top prize, but this should be a contender in a few years. The other projects that Mike Schur has been involved with took a little while to find their footing, and I expect that to be the case here as well.
13: The Mindy Project
I have this show ranked low for a few reasons: one, having not watched it, I can’t verify how funny it is. Secondly, I think Kaling’s chances of individual recognition are higher than the show’s overall chances. Finally, given the number of Fox shows that hope to jump into the final group, this one could be the odd one out.
12: Eastbound & Down
This show may earn a nod, but given that HBO is expected to be represented by Veep and Girls once again, I can’t place Eastbound much higher than this since I doubt there will be three shows from any network nominated. Of course, you can’t fully count Kenny Powers and company out.
11: It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Is this the year Always Sunny jumps in? Unlikely, but the episode last week where they mock the fact they haven’t ever been nominated at the Emmys was an outstanding commentary as to what the voters are looking for.
In what will (probably) be the final season of one of the most underrated shows of all time, it would be nice for Community to finally get some recognition. This season will be bittersweet with the return of Dan Harmon but the departure of Donald Glover, but a nomination here would be a great way for the show to go out.
Glee has a chance at a nomination because as I alluded to with the lead actress category, this will be an emotional season. If played correctly, it could pay off big dividends for a show that hasn’t been nominated since 2011.
8-6: Nurse Jackie/Episodes/House of Lies
I’m ranking all these together because Showtime has had some good representation in the acting categories from these shows this year. It’s entirely possible one of them could jump into the top category next year.
5: The Crazy Ones
This show is on CBS, features two pretty established stars in Robin Williams and Sarah Michelle Geller in addition to Bob Benson himself (james Wolk), and is one of the most praised rookie shows of the year. I’d say there’s a pretty solid chance this could jump in there.
4: Orange is the New Black
Orange is the New Black could represent Netflix in the top comedy category just like House of Cards did this year for drama. I would rank it higher if not for the fact that its season will be over a calendar year old by the next ceremony and that could handicap it as other shows run closer to the end of the eligibility window.
3: How I Met Your Mother
True, it’s only been nominated once for Best Comedy Series and that was 2009, but in a final season that will feature a format change (whole season will take place over one weekend), it could earn a spot for sure.
2: New Girl
After being totally shut out nomination-wise this year, New Girl could return to the Emmys in a big way. It stands the best shot of being Fox’s nominee for Best Comedy Series, and could have many overall nominations.
1: Parks & Recreation
There has been at least one nominated NBC show in this category since 1981. With 30 Rock and The Office gone, Parks & Rec is the show in waiting to represent the peacock. It was nominated in 2011, and should return next year.
So, there you go, the people and shows that I think are most likely to earn nominations at next year’s Emmy awards. We’ll see if these are close or way off base. Only time will tell.
I hope you like this post, and I hope you like what else I have to say.