2013 Oscar Predictions: Part I

I decided to split my Oscar predictions into two parts.  The first part will deal with my predictions for most of the technical categories, while the second part will have my predictions for best picture, director, all acting categories, writing, animated feature, and music.  Now here are my predictions (awards are listed in alphabetical order of category).

Cinematography

• Anna Karenina (Seamus McGarvey)
• Django Unchained (Robert Richardson)
• Life of Pi (Claudio Miranda)
• Lincoln (Janusz Kaminski)
• Skyfall (Roger Deakins)

While all of these people have been nominated before, Richardson (3 times) and Kaminski (2 times) are the only previous winners.  While I thought Django, Lincoln and Skyfall were all very well shot, my gut is telling me Life of Pi.  While I haven’t seen it yet, the commercials have given me an Avatar visual vibe, and cinematography was one of the three Oscars that movie won.  Odds are, it’ll happen here again.  My second choice is Lincoln, because Kaminski’s two previous wins were also Spielberg movies (Saving Private Ryan, Schindler’s List) while Richardson failed to win in his last Tarantino collaboration (Inglourious Basterds).

Costume Design

• Anna Karenina (Jacqueline Durran)
• Les Miserables (Paco Delgado)
• Lincoln (Joanna Johnston)
• Mirror Mirror (Eiko Ishioka)
• Snow White and the Huntsman (Colleen Atwood)

Atwood is a three time winner of this award, but I’m inclined to select Durran in this category.  Period pieces always seem to take this award home, and while I’ll be rooting for Les Miserables or Lincoln to win this one, they have bigger fish to fry, so I’m predicting the Academy tosses a bone to Durran instead of first time nominees Delgado or Johnston.

Documentary Feature Film

• 5 Broken Cameras (Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi)
• The Gatekeepers (Dror Moreh, Philippa Kowarsky and Estelle Fialon)
• How to Survive a Plague (David France and Howard Gertler)
• The Invisible War (Kirby Dick and Amy Ziering)
• Searching for Sugar Man (Malik Bendjelloul and Simon Chinn)

I haven’t seen any of these, so I made an educated guess based on the synopses for each film, and the fact that Chinn previously won for Man on Wire which is an outstanding documentary.  These all sound good and interesting, but I’m taking a shot in the dark and I know it.  The Invisible War was narrowly my second choice above How to Survive a Plague.

Documentary Short

• Inocente (Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine)
• Kings Point (Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider)
• Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan)
• Open Heart (Kief Davidson and Cori Sheperd Stern)
• Redemption (Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill)

Again, I haven’t seen any of the nominees, but this short seems right up the Academy’s alley.  Could be totally off base, however.

Film Editing

• Argo (William Goldenberg)
• Life of Pi (Tim Squyres)
• Lincoln (Michael Kahn)
• Silver Linings Playbook (Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers)
• Zero Dark Thirty (Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg)

While Michael Kahn has three Oscars in this category, and all of them came from collaborations with Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan, Schindler’s List, Raiders of the Lost Ark), I think this award is Argo’s to lose.  The tension is built throughout the film, and the climax is just so well edited, that even if you feel you know how it’s going to end, your heart will be pounding.  That scene in particular is why I’m thinking it will win this award.

Foreign Language Film

• Amour (Austria)
• Kon-Tiki (Norway)
• No (Chile)
• A Royal Affair (Denmark)
• War Witch (Canada)

This seems like a no-brainer considering Amour is nominated for Best Picture.  I haven’t seen any of these, but if anything beats Amour, it would be pretty surprising.

Makeup and Hairstyling

• Hitchcock (Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel)
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane)
• Les Miserables (Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell)

King previously won this award for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, so it stands to reason that The Hobbit will take this award this year.  While many were disappointed with the return to Middle Earth, the makeup was very well done once again.  If The Hobbit doesn’t win, expect Les Miserables to snag this award.

Production Design

• Anna Karenina (Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer)
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent and Simon Bright)
• Les Miserables (Eve Stewart and Anne Lynch-Robinson)
• Life of Pi (David Gropman and Anna Pinnock)
• Lincoln (Rick Carter and Jim Erickson)

This appears to be a two-horse race between Anna Karenina and Lincoln, but I’m giving the nod to Lincoln.  I could be off base, but if Lincoln expects to win Best Picture, it needs to win a few of these types of awards.  Keep an eye out on this category, if Lincoln goes home empty handed, it could be an indication of how the end of the night will go.

Short Film (Animated)

• Adam and Dog (Minkyu Lee)
• Fresh Guacamole (PES)
• Head over Heels (Timothy Reckhart and Fodhia Cronin O’Reilly)
• Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare” (David Silverman)
• Paperman (John Kahrs)

Paperman seems to be the runaway favorite in this category, but any of these could take the award home come Oscar night.  However, the smart money seems to be on this one.  I would be surprised if this doesn’t earn a golden statuette.

Short Film (Live Action)

• Asad (Bryan Buckley and Miro Jarjoura)
• Buzkashi Boys (Sam French and Ariel Nasr)
• Curfew (Shawn Christensen)
• Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw) (Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele)
• Henry (Yan England)

Haven’t seen any of these yet (a familiar trend in some categories), but based on the descriptions and the lack of previous winners, my money would be on Curfew.  Just an educated guess, however.

Sound Editing

• Argo (Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn)
• Django Unchained (Wylie Stateman)
• Life of Pi (Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton)
• Skyfall (Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers)
• Zero Dark Thirty (Paul N.J. Ottosson)

I think Zero Dark Thirty will take this one.  I felt this was well done in the movie, but we’ll see if that opinion is right.  Not much else to say about this.

Sound Mixing

• Argo (John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia)
• Les Miserables (Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes)
• Life of Pi (Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin)
• Lincoln (Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins)
• Skyfall (Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson)

While all the nominated teams feature previous winners, I would be surprised if Les Miserables doesn’t win this award considering it’s a musical.  That element aside, I feel that it was mixed very well and should be the frontrunner for this award.  Again, this is an award to keep your eyes on, because the winner here could possibly be an indication for Best Picture.

Visual Effects

• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White)
• Life of Pi (Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott)
• Marvel’s The Avengers (Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick)
• Prometheus (Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill)
• Snow White and the Huntsman (Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson)

While I will be rooting for The Avengers to take this prize, considering it’s the only nomination that it earned, I can’t see anything except Life of Pi winning this award considering that was what it was mainly praised for.  The Hobbit’s special effects team has been rewarded several times, and while the effects were more ambitious in this film than in the Lord of the Rings trilogy, I still think that Life of Pi will take it.  However, I can’t give enough praise to The Hobbit and The Avengers, because Gollum and the Hulk were almost good enough to win this award even without the other effects.

Tune in for the rest of the predictions soon.

Hope you liked this post, and I hope you like what else I have to say.